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Snapshot of Q4 2024 findings

The Downside

The Upside 

Hidden strain behind the headline growth – strip out once-off pension withdrawals and Q4 growth slows to just 1.4 % YoY and 1.2 % QoQ. 

Private-sector jobs bounce back – employment now higher than pre-COVID and above 2014 levels. 

Debt servicing weighs heavily – households are sacrificing ever-larger slices of income to interest after three years of tight monetary policy. 

Real take-home pay improves – private-sector salaries and disposable income rose on both a quarterly and annual basis. 

Retirement withdrawals surge – the new two-pot system inflated lump-sum payouts and life-policy surrenders, masking underlying pressure.

Household wealth ratio climbs – stronger JSE valuations boost collateral and non-salary income potential.

 

What you’ll learn in the full report

Asset 13 Why the headline AFHRI score rose for the third straight quarter – and why that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Asset 7 How high rates are still throttling credit extension and household consumption – and what to watch if the SARB pivots in 2025.
Asset 48 Sector-by-sector stress tests: which income bands, regions and age groups show early warning signs.
Asset 44 Action points for lenders, insurers and retailers keen to calibrate risk models before the next economic shock.
Asset 50 Expert commentary from economist Dr Roelof Botha on the global rate cycle, South Africa’s policy options, and growth prospects.

AFHRI in the media

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Who uses the AFHRI?

If your decisions touch South African households, AFHRI is your early-warning radar.

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    Credit & risk teams fine-tune scorecards to protect margins.
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    Policy makers & regulators gauge household vulnerability before setting interventions.
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    Investors & wealth advisers benchmark macro trends against portfolio positioning.
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    Media & academics track the pulse of the consumer economy.

Meet Dr Roelof Botha,
the economist behind the AFHRI

With more than 50 years’ experience in economics, former National Treasury adviser and award-winning forecaster Dr Roelof Botha unpacks the data in plain language and highlights where opportunities still exist despite the headwinds.

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